A RECURSIVE OPTIMIZATION OF ONTARIO’S FUTURE POWER MIX UTILIZING SMALL MODULAR REACTOR (SMR) DEPLOYMENT

Abstract

Under the constraints of rising demand, emissions reductions commitments and maintaining energy security, Ontario’s current power mix will likely become insufficient by 2035 while current projections for expanded natural gas use will move the province further away from its environmental goals. This investigation evaluates the long-term viability of SMR deployment into the Ontario power mix over a 33-year period by modeling the 2055 economically optimized power mix. Recursive modeling allows the sharing of data between statically solved model instances via post-processing, applying a temporal element to the analysis. With this method, dynamic factors such as forecasted demand growth, increasing capacity installations, learning curve applications, and reactor refurbishment and decommissioning schedules were applied to the modelling scenarios. Such an analysis is useful in planning for future energy supply growth to match demand while minimizing spending, ensuring the reduction of CO₂ emissions and preparing for the magnitude of new capacity types. Simulations show ideal cost reductions when approximately one third of generated energy is produced by SMRs in the future energy mix and that the absence of SMRs may lead to up to 29% higher spending. Additional cases have considered the benefits of early SMR investment and direct SMR-CANDU cost comparisons.