Application of a modified DICE model to evaluate scenarios of a reduced carbon footprint

Abstract

The accumulated level of CO₂ in the atmosphere continues to increase globally in spite of societal outcry to address this problem in an urgent manner. This work modifies the Nordhaus Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) model, using the Vensim dynamic systems modeling tool, in order to investigate the impact of replacing three identified CO₂ emitting systems, these being: 1) fossil-fueled power plant (FFPP) with nuclear plants, 2) fossil-fueled transport vehicles with electric vehicles, and 3) fossil-fueled domestic heat with electric heaters. Simulations were performed with the various national net-zero targets in mind in increments of 10 years, starting from year, 2019 to 2100. Representative simulations results indicate that replacing more than 70,000 FFPPs currently operating in the world, would reduce CO₂ emissions roughly 25% compared to the business as usual scenario. In terms of national target scenarios, if the goal is to reach net-zero CO₂ emission by 2060, a reduction in atmospheric CO₂ concentration by year 2100 is estimated to be 13%, or some 82 ppm. The DICE model further predicts a reduction in global warming of 0.3°C or 11% by the end of the century. These system-wide output metrics from DICE simulations, relative to replacement rate scenarios will be explained.