Optimizing the Implementation of Small Modular Reactors Into Ontario's Energy Mix

Abstract

The aim of this research is to investigate Ontario's implementation of small modular reactors (SMRs) over an initial 50-year period, allowing for consideration of Ontario’s current energy mix as well as approximately two generations of SMR installations. Using linear programming and IBM’s CPLEX Optimization software, a model was developed to compare frontline SMR designs with the province’s existing energy mix. The model seeks to minimize the overall cost of electricity generation in Ontario by replacing a fraction of the existing capacity with SMRs, including constraints such as CO₂ emissions, nuclear waste disposal and the hourly availability of competing renewables. Initial findings have demonstrated significant support for the construction of SMRs as cost-effective, environmentally friendly new capacity. Despite requiring additional constraints to ensure the model is realistic, early optimized scenarios have suggested that phasing out remaining natural gas capacity and allocating approximately 12% of Ontario’s energy demand to SMR-generated electricity will minimize overall costs.