Size and Cost Optimization of Nuclear Reactors in Energy Markets: the Need for New Approaches and Advances

Abstract

The paper describes an iterative three-step approach to the optimization of cost and size in competitive power markets. In 2000 I analysed modular and small reactor economics, where the real issue is meeting power and financial market requirements, not technology choice. To ensure the plant cost intersects the market generating price, multiple units or “modules” include mass production with learning effects, utilize the “saw-tooth” cash flow curve, require an “order book” for 10-100 standardized units, and investment in module “factories”. Moreover, worldwide the fractional market share is partly determined by the price advantage over local alternate fuels. Entirely new products must be developed because low capital cost and high efficiency, modern natural gas and supercritical coal plants likely dominate for the next 20 years. There is time for non-conventional and innovative technology developments that challenge the paradigms of the past that cannot meet the required future advances in market competitiveness.