Addressing the Long Time Horizon for Managing Used Nuclear Fuel

Abstract

The time horizon that must be considered in developing an approach to managing used nuclear fuel extends many thousands of years. Such a time horizon is without precedent in environmental, economic, social, technical and public policy terms. As a first step in addressing this issue, the Nuclear Waste Management Organization convened a team of 33 individuals to undertake a formal scenarios exercise. Such an exercise is a way of framing potential futures that might occur. There is no intent to predict the future. This exercise represents the first time that the scenarios technique has been used for such a long time horizon. The approach involved identifying two principle axes of potential change: (1) social – political – environmental well-being; and (2) magnitude of the used nuclear fuel challenge. Using this organizing template, four scenarios were developed reaching out 25 years, and an additional twelve were developed at 175 years branching out from the original four. In addition, a series of sixteen possible 'end-points' were identified to span conditions 500 years out and for 10,000 years a large number of 'what- ifs' were developed. The scenarios, end-points, and what- ifs were then used to identify a number of criteria that could be used for testing proposed management options and their capacity to deal with future conditions. This paper describes this work and the role that it has played in the deliberations of the Nuclear Waste Management Organization.